Ground-Nesting Birds’ Numbers Down in Some Missouri Areas

By Jim Low, Missouri Dept. of Conservation

First posted on 07-12-2008

The weather was not kind to wildlife in 2007, but quail, turkeys and other wildlife will bounce back.

Landowners in some parts of northern Missouri report many fewer wild turkeys than they are used to seeing at this time of year. The state’s top turkey biologist says the phenomenon is real, and likely is related to weather and the transition from an expanding turkey population to a stable one.

Resource Scientist Tom Dailey says he has received multiple reports that turkey numbers are down in north-central Missouri.

“Landowners are sending in letters expressing concern about low numbers of turkey,” said Dailey. “They say where they used to see flocks of up to a couple hundred turkeys in the wintertime, now they are lucky if they see 50. They are still seeing turkeys, but many fewer.”

He said most of the reports have come from the Kirksville area, but the phenomenon does not seem to be limited to Missouri. Biologists with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources are hearing the same thing on their side of the border. He said weather is the most likely cause.

Temperatures plunged far below freezing in early last April, bottoming out in the teens throughout most of northern Missouri early Easter morning. Nighttime temperatures fell below freezing for seven consecutive days in Knox County. The Easter freeze caught many wild turkey hens in the middle of laying eggs, possibly freezing their clutches. The freak late cold snaps probably threw wild turkeys statewide into a reproductive tailspin, resetting their biological clocks and delaying nesting by weeks.

Dailey said other ground-nesting birds, notably the bobwhite quail and ring-necked pheasant, also suffered from severe weather last year. Weather challenges included widespread ice storms and heavy snow during the winter and severe localized flooding during the summer.

“2007 was a rough one for quail,” said Dailey. “In areas where they had weed and crop seeds, woody cover and tall grasses and weeds they did okay. But they got hurt in many areas.”

For turkeys, the effects of last spring’s late freeze showed up in the 2007 survey that measures hen nest success. That survey showed the second-lowest ratio of recently hatched turkeys to hens on record, one poult per hen.

Other factors might be at work in northern Missouri, too. Dailey said he has heard rumors that some avian disease might have further depleted turkey numbers, but he described this as speculation. He has only heard one or two reports of diseased turkeys, and those came from other parts of the state.

“Diseases are common in turkeys,” said Dailey. “It’s just another factor that turkeys have to deal with. Management-wise, there’s not much landowners or biologists can do.”

Another challenge to turkeys that resulted from the Easter freeze did not become evident until last fall. The cold snap destroyed oak buds and blossoms. The 2007 acorn study showed the lowest yield by white oaks since 1960. Acorns are a very important food for turkeys. The combination of a rough winter and an acorn shortage means some birds will not make it through the winter, or they will enter the nesting season in poor condition.

Whatever the cause, Conservation Department surveys show the state’s wild turkey population has been steady to declining in recent years. The poult-to-hen ratio was 1.2 in 2005, well below the 10-year average of 1.9. The previous two years’ poult-to-hen ratios were below average, too.

The ratio climbed to a relatively strong 1.6 in 2006. This promises better hunting in this year’s spring turkey season, since 2-year-old male turkeys are the most active gobblers. But Dailey said the overall trend is downward.

“Last year’s poor nest success will have repercussions for at least a couple of years,” he said. “If we get good production this summer, spring gobbler hunters won’t realize the benefits for a couple of years.”

Dailey noted that turkey populations are doing better in other parts of the state. “They are doing pretty well in the Ozarks,” he said. “It’s just a shock to people up in north-central Missouri, who are used to seeing a lot of turkeys, not to be seeing as many now.”

Even factoring out the effects of weather, Dailey said Missouri’s turkey flock seems to be in transition. He said the days of seeing turkey flocks numbering in the hundreds may be gone.

“That occurred during the time when our turkey flock was expanding, and population growth was extremely rapid. Eventually things catch up with us. Predator populations build up slowly to take advantage of increasing prey numbers. They lag a few years behind. Raccoons, bobcats, opossums, skunks, coyotes, owls and other predators are taking advantage of widespread, large numbers of turkeys.”

According to Dailey, turkeys and their predators eventually will reach a point of equilibrium, and the state’s turkey population will stabilize at a level slightly lower than it has been the past few years.

“Instead of seeing more turkeys every year, we will see year-to-year variations, mostly related to weather during the nesting season,” he said. “We could have very good turkey populations in a couple of years in the same areas where their numbers currently are down a lot. It may not be as high as it was in the past, but certainly it will be better than it is now.”

Although it might seem prudent to reduce season length or bag limits to help turkey numbers recover, Dailey said this not only is not needed, it would not help.

“Because we are shooting gobblers, and rarely bearded hens, during the spring season, hunting season really isn’t a limiting factor on population growth. Unless we have some widespread, long-term crash in the population, going to more restrictive hunting regulations isn’t going to have any effect on population trends like the one we are talking about here.”

He said Missouri’s turkey regulations are geared to maintain quality turkey hunting. The Conservation Department tracks turkey numbers in several ways. One is by watching the average age of gobblers taken by hunters, as reflected in Telecheck data on gobbler spur length. The agency also tracks the percentage of licensed hunters who kill turkeys, and it monitors the poult-to-hen ratio and surveys hunters about whether they are satisfied with their hunting experience.

“So far, our regulations are doing a good job of maintaining a strong turkey population and a high-quality hunting experience,” said Dailey. “We have gotten a little spoiled by decades of turkey population growth, but they are just like other wildlife. Their numbers go up and down in response to weather conditions. We have had several rough years recently, but give them two or three years of good weather during the nesting season and our turkeys will bounce back.”

To learn more about this citizen-volunteer effort to learn more about wild turkey gobbling behavior, visit http://www.mdc.mo.gov, and click on “Be a Gobble Count Volunteer.” Participants will automatically be entered in a drawing for their choice of a lifetime hunting permit or a shotgun.

-Jim Low-