Weather Looks Favorable for Autumn Color

By Jim Low, Missouri Dept. of Conservation

First posted on 09-29-2008

It is starting already. Roadsides are banked with the royal purple of sumac, poison ivy vines ring tree trunks like leafy lava flows, and the edges of dogwood leaves are tinged with scarlet.

Missouri’s season of splendor is upon us, and foresters around the state say 2008 is likely to be one to remember. Unlike last year, when ice storms destroyed thousands of trees and a freakish bout of arctic weather defoliated trees from the Iowa line to the Bootheel, this year’s weather has been remarkably moderate. Missouri also broke out of the drought cycle that plagued many parts of the state over the past five years.

“If anything, we got too much rain in a lot of areas,” said Justine Gartner, forestry field program supervisor for the Missouri Department of Conservation. “But the abundance of rain has been wonderful for trees.”

Resource Scientist David Gwaze said anecdotal reports and early results of field surveys by Conservation Department workers indicate a strong crop of white oak acorns. Besides being good for deer, turkeys and squirrels, this indicates excellent tree health.

Fall color is most vivid when days shorten and sunny days and cool nights dominate the weather in late September and early October. Nighttime lows in the 50s and 60s causes the green pigment, chlorophyll, to break down, allowing other colors to show through.

Late-season rainfall patterns can affect fall color, too. Heavy rains just before leaves turn colors tend to reduce color intensity by flushing sugars from leaves and into tree roots. Rainy, windy weather in October can hasten leaf-fall, cutting short the autumn foliage display.

“The weather is always a wild card,” said Gartner, “but our trees are in great shape going into this fall. With reasonably normal weather, we should see great fall color.”

Ozark Forestry Regional Supervisor Tom Draper said he expects fall color to peak during the last two weeks of October in his area.

“My gut tells me the maples, dogwoods black gum and sumac will be spectacular this year,” Draper said. “The black gum trees are already showing the beginnings of good color. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike pumped a lot of moisture into the Ozarks, so trees will sustain their vigor which should set the stage for a very good fall color show in the Ozarks.”

Draper said Highway 19 between Hermann and Thayer should be a beautiful drive this fall.

Resource Forester Kristen Goodrich said fall color could be phenomenal in northeast Missouri if rainfall is normal and warm, sunny days and cool nights prevail.

“It’s been cooler than normal this summer, and that could trigger early color if it keeps up,” Goodrich said.

Urban Forester Rob Emmett echoed Goodrich’s prediction, saying he expects the peak of fall color in the St. Louis area around the weekend of Oct. 24 and 25. He said the Missouri River bluffs along Highway 94 in St. Charles and Warren counties should provide excellent fall color viewing.

Urban Forester Charles Conner said the Kansas City area has good fall color potential this year, too.

In northwest Missouri, Resource Forester Phil Sneed said ash and walnut trees probably will begin changing color in early October in the Chillicothe area, with the peak of fall color occurring between Oct. 17 and 24. With favorable weather, his area could see moderate to good color.

Farther west, Resource Forester Lonnie Messbarger predicts average to fair fall color peaking earlier than usual.

Forestry Regional Supervisor Tim French said he expects fall color to peak in mid-October in central Missouri. He said this summer’s weather created conditions for excellent color and recommended Highway 94 and or any central-Missouri road offering views of stream valleys and river hills for fall color viewing.

For fall color updates, visit mdc.mo.gov/nathis/seasons/fall/.

For more suggested fall color viewing routes and information about why trees turn colors in the fall, visit or write to MDC, Follow the Show of Missouri’s Fall Colors, P.O. Box 180, Jefferson City, MO 65102-0180, or e-mail .

-Jim Low-